Pretty much Everyone was Wrong

This reminds of the the 2008 depression during Obama’s reign. 

Nearly every time economists predictions were surprisingly wrong. 

How can only 3 of 50 economists get this right — and those on the tail end of the curve? 

CPI in vconyrcy2022 09 13 10 31 15

 

Just BMO (and two other smallish banks, SMBC Nikko and Berliner Sparkasse) predicted correctly

  • BMO 8.3
  • BNP 8
  • BofA 8.2
  • Citi 8
  • Credit Suisse 7.9
  • Goldman 8
  • HSBC 8.2
  • ING 8.2
  • Jefferies 8
  • JPMorgan 8.1
  • Morgan Stanley 7.9
  • Nomura 8
  • Soc Gen 8.1
  • Standard Chartered 8
  • Stifel 8
  • TD 8
  • Wells Fargo 7.9

Will they fix their predictive models? They put way too much weight on fuel prices decreasing (which is a leading indicator) and ignored what any normal American could have told them: food costs are sky-high. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-no-good-news-across-report-shocked-wall-street-reacts-todays-shocking-cpi-print