Back in 1997, William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote a prophetic book: “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy – What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny”.
Based on 80-100 year cycles of history, they predicted that the next “Fourth Turning” (crisis phase) would begin around the mid-2000s and reach its climax in the 2020s.
And here we are today.
In 1997, William Strauss and Neil Howe offered a provocative lens on history with their book “The Fourth Turning,” a read that feels increasingly relevant amid today’s global upheavals. They propose that Western history ebbs and flows in roughly 80 to 100-year cycles, what the ancient Romans called “saeculum.”
As we witness the current turmoil in our political landscape, with deepening divides and escalating international tensions, this theory offers a compelling framework to understand the seemingly unprecedented challenges we face.
The cycle, broken down into four distinct “turnings,” eerily echoes our contemporary narrative, suggesting we are caught in the throes of a pivotal historical moment:
- High: Coming after a crisis, this is a time for society to rebuild. It’s marked by a collective drive to strengthen institutions, a shared optimism, and a hunger for stability.
- Awakening: Here, society pushes back against the status quo, igniting a period of spiritual and cultural reawakening.
- Unraveling: As social institutions wane, individualism rises. There’s a pervasive sense that the systems in place no longer serve personal aspirations.
- Crisis: The cycle reaches its zenith in a transformative upheaval, reshaping society’s foundations through conflict or sweeping reform.
They highlight the last three crises in the U.S. history:
- War for Independence
- Civil War
- The Great Depression and WWII
In 1997, Strauss and Howe predicted that the next “Fourth Turning” (crisis phase) would begin around the mid-2000s and reach its climax in the 2020s. They predicted that this period would be marked by significant crises that would reshape society’s structure and values.
Howe’s 2023 work, “The Fourth Turning Is Here,” addresses the current crisis phase: The Great Recession, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the Covid pandemic and its economic aftermath.
Covid was treated as a crisis and the treatments only made things worse: consider the forced vaccines and masking, vaccine passports, the closure of ‘non-essential’ businesses, curfews and lockdowns, gathering restrictions, surveillance and tracking, censorship and overreach of information control, illegal outdoor recreation, and the weaponization of neighbor against neighbor.
Further, we have the unchecked invasion of over 10 million illegal aliens during Biden’s regime and the showdown with Texas. New York City taxpayers pay $12,214 per month to feed and house each migrant. At the start of 2023, the net cost of illegal immigration for the U.S. was over $150.7 billion.
Our national debt has skyrocketed past $34 trillion thanks to both Republicans and Democrats, with interest payments alone costing us $733 billion. Inflation is back.
Meanwhile, the BRICS nations are threatening the dollar’s global dominance. Tensions mount as the Middle East simmers, China eyes Taiwan, North Korea expands its nuclear arsenal, Iran chases nuclear capabilities, and the U.S. left a $90 billion military arsenal to the Taliban. At home we deal with pro-Hamas protests, Antifa and BLM ‘mostly peaceful’ riots, and far-right militias all which have been infiltrated by the FBI to incite them further.
Cybersecurity risks grow while the U.S. contends with a shadowy deep state that spies on and censors us. Chaos grips our cities, and the 2024 presidential race is between two disastrous candidates. Add to this mix the divisive Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity agenda and the contentious Environmental, Social, and Governance movement.
There are demographic challenges: declining birth rates, aging population, tepid labor force participation rate, historically low population growth, and high school graduates not wanting to go to college nor join the military. Progressives want to reward laziness with Universal Basic Income.
All these factors, from global to local, weave into the fabric of a historical Crisis Phase, suggesting we’re squarely amidst Strauss and Howe’s predicted turmoil.
As Strauss and Howe’s generational theory suggests, we’re at a defining moment where historical cycles converge into a crisis phase rife with economic, political, and societal turbulence. The U.S. is entangled in challenges: unchecked immigration, a soaring national debt, inflation, and pervasive global conflicts—symptoms of a world in disarray.
Our national resilience is under trial, facing the Great Recession’s hangover, the government’s disastrous pandemic response, and intensifying geopolitical frictions. Today’s chaos, stoked by polarizing policies and leadership lacking in merit, echoes the stark prophecies of ‘The Fourth Turning.’
Yet, within this cycle lies the opportunity for renewal, for as history teaches us: from the ashes of the old, a new order can emerge. It is a call to return to the principles that once anchored our nation—merit, integrity, accountability, and faith. If we heed the lessons of the past, we can navigate this turning point and steer towards a future where the American spirit, defined by its resilience and innovation, prevails.