Though it was once widely projected as a Democratic Party “hold,”
the Arizona Senate seat occupied by Mark Kelly is now in serious jeopardy
, as the latest polls show him in a virtual tie with GOP challenger Blake Masters.In early September, Kelly led the
RealClearPolitics
poll average by 6 points.
Now, despite being outspent by Democrats– and abandoned by Mitch McConnell’s super PAC — Masters is within just 2.5 points.
However, given pollsters’ well-established tendency to undercount GOP support, the race is likely even tighter than that.
In the 2020 election, the
RealClearPolitics
average ended up overstating Biden’s support in Arizona by
3.7%
.Applying that adjustment puts Masters ahead by aggregate 1.2%. Note, however, that 2020 Arizona Senate polls were even farther off the mark, overstating Democratic strength by
6.5%
.
Blake Masters for U.S. Senate Press on Twitter: “”Are you ready for a United States Senator who will be fearless and bold and make Arizona great again, and send Mark Kelly back into outer space in search of his brain? Then you got to vote for Blake Masters!” @KariLake 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Qd3BN7yh4Y / Twitter”
“Are you ready for a United States Senator who will be fearless and bold and make Arizona great again, and send Mark Kelly back into outer space in search of his brain? Then you got to vote for Blake Masters!” @KariLake 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Qd3BN7yh4Y
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dems-senate-worries-mount-arizona-race-now-dead-heat