Democrats, Stop With The Poll Rigging…It’s Getting Embarrassing
Last fall, in the months/weeks leading up to the presidential election, we spent a fair amount time talking about how Democratic pollsters were setting themselves up for a massive embarrassment on election day with their obviously rigged polling data that consistently suggested Hillary had a commanding lead.
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In fact, just weeks before the election, the Washington Post published a poll showing that Hillary was well on her way to a ‘blowout’ 12-point victory (we wrote about it here: This Is How WaPo’s Latest Poll Gave Hillary A 12 Point Advantage Over Trump). Needless to say, that never happened and those pollsters suffered the humiliating consequences of their biased ‘math.’
Unfortunately, as last night’s special election in Georgia makes all too clear, no one on the left seems to have learned any lessons from their presidential poll rigging debacle last November.
In fact, one prominent pollster even declared just 6 days before the election that if Ossoff failed to win it would mean that “MATH IS DEAD AND DATA IS BROKEN.”
I say Ossoff is up 3 points in average, but average error in special House elections is 4.5 points. What’s your interpretation of that data?
@ForecasterEnten It means there’s a 70% chance Ossoff wins and a 30% chance that MATH IS DEAD AND DATA IS BROKEN.
Of course, the problem isn’t that “math is dead” or “data is broken”…the problem is that rather than using data to arrive at a solution pollsters have resorted to starting out with a solution and then solving for the data.
Which is exactly what appears to have happened in Georgia. As the following chart points out, with just 9 days left until election day, pollsters were predicting a fairly easy win for Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff in Georgia’s 6th district runoff…shocking, we know. But, just over a week later, the Republican candidate ended up easily walking away with the win, and served up another embarrassment for pollsters in the process as actual results swung 8.6 points from predictions peddled to the public just a week earlier.
