I’m not holding my breath that Oregon goes red.
But if it does, it’s saying a ton.
With Election Day less than a month away, Democrats and Republicans are duking it out to secure majorities in Congress. While both parties funnel record-breaking millions of dollars into several traditional battleground states like Pennsylvania and Nevada, Democrats could lose a state they’ve won since the late 1980s – Oregon.
Though the state is all but guaranteed to re-elect longtime Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden, there’s a real possibility Oregonians might just elect their first Republican governor in nearly 35 years. Thanks to a well-funded independent spoiler candidate and an unpopular outgoing governor, Democrats are facing a tight race with serious implications as major issues like abortion are tossed to the states.
While D.C. insiders are shocked to see Oregon in play after RealClearPoliticsshifted the gubernatorial election to a “toss-up,” Oregonians like myself have long seen the writing on the wall.
Conservatives in the state began gaining steam prior to the pandemic, seizing on hot-button issues like climate legislation to galvanize support from rural and moderate voters. One example was a cap-and-trade bill that had Republican legislators fleeing the state Capitol to avoid a vote and motivated the start of Timber Unity, a group strung together by right-leaning rural Oregonians who were locally famous for leading a log truck protest against the legislation.
From there, dissatisfaction continued to metastasize over the course of the pandemic. Despite ranking in the top 10 states for lowest COVID-19 cases and resulting deaths, Gov. Kate Brown had the highest disapproval ranking of any governor in the country as recently as last April, triggering three separate recall attempts that ultimately failed to make it on the November ballot.
Ahead of November, many Democrats have distanced themselves from the outgoing governor and have instead focused on promoting their own detailed plans to tackle things like tent cities and modernizing Oregon’s firefighting capabilities.
All the while, Republican nominee and former state Senate Minority Leader Christine Drazan has used Oregon’s escalating homelessness and addiction crises as evidence of failed Democratic leadership. Capitalizing on the fact that the president’s party historically loses ground during midterm elections and ongoing inflation woes, Drazan is unusually well-positioned to help flip the state red.
