You wouldn’t know it after yesterday’s election.
The 2022 midterm election is once again characterized by extreme polarization between the parties. Despite moderate positions gaining slightly this year, an annual survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows that moderates are in the minority in both parties the United States.
In July, 42 percent of self-described Democrats said they were moderates or conservatives, opposite 58 percent who considered themselves liberals. The gap is even bigger in the Republican Party, where 77 percent identified as conservatives and only 23 percent said of themselves that they were moderates or liberals. According to this survey, this makes Republicans in fact a whole lot more conservative than Democrats are liberal.
A height of polarization was reached last year, when 80 percent of Republicans said they were conservatives and the number of liberal Democrats rose to 60 percent. Diving deeper into the data shows that 13 percent of Republicans described themselves as “extremely conservative” in 2022 as opposed to 9 percent of Democrats who considered themselves “extremely liberal”. However, considering all respondents across both parties, self-described moderates are the biggest group in the U.S. at 36 percent, followed very closely by 35 percent of conservatives.
Time will tell if the upcoming election will mirror voter preferences and favor conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats over of middle-of-the road winners. According to FiveThirtyEight, 70 percent of GOP candidates who have said they believed the 2020 elected was rigged are expected or likely to win their races, compared to other Republicans whose odds were put at only 37 percent by the website. While Democrats are projected to lose seats overall, liberal newcomers for 2023 could include former Pennsylvania lieutenant governor John Fetterman, who is taking on Trump-endorsed Republican Mehmet Oz of talk show host fame for a Pennsylvania Senate seat. In Oregon’s 5th District, Progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner is up against conservative Lori Chavez-DeRemer in another toss-up open seat race. However, progressive Democrats mostly lost in the primaries, creating a Democratic field for 2022 that might not be well-liked by liberals, but could appeal to Independents or even moderates from the rival party who reject the Trump camp.