Job and population growth in Gem State is expected to slow down some in the coming years; construction of single- and multi-family homes is projected to drop 24%
An updated economic forecast suggests Idaho will see a modest slowdown in employment growth next year, but won’t dip into a recession regardless of what happens nationally.
The state Division of Financial Management released the updated forecast this week. It’s based on the latest national forecast from IHS Markit, a London-based firm that provides global economic projections.
A number of economists think the United States is already in a recession, after gross domestic product declined during the first two quarters of 2022.
GDP edged up at an annual rate of 2.6% during the third quarter that ended Sept. 30. However, IHS Markit expects growth to dip again over the final three months of the year, followed by a continued decline through the first half of 2023.
Overall, the company sees the U.S. economy contracting by about 4% before the recession ends. It also reduced its growth forecast for the remainder of 2023 and 2024.
“It’s clear IHS is viewing growth as more difficult to attain,” noted the Division of Financial Management. “With the switch in IHS’s position, it’s worth reconsidering the likelihood of a gloomy future for Idaho.”
After doing just that, Greg Piepmeyer, the division’s chief economist, determined that the state’s economy should stay on its upward path.
“After evaluating the risks and data in this report, it is our conclusion that Idaho is not currently in, nor headed for a recession,” Piepmeyer wrote. “This is true even if the nation overall experiences economic contraction over the next several quarters. However, growth in Idaho in terms of population and jobs is expected to slow down.”
The forecast calls for continued in-migration into the state, with the overall population increasing from about 1.94 million this year to 2 million in 2025.
https://dfm.idaho.gov/wp-content/uploads/publications/eab/ief/ief_oct2022.pdf