Summary
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Births in America continue to tumble despite a growing child bearing population.
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The growth among the child bearing population is decelerating and this population will begin outright declines around 2029.
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US births are likely to continue falling, faster and far deeper, while current Census estimates continue to anticipate growth (continually just around the corner).
How Low Will US Births Go?!?
The chart below is the 20 to 40 year old US population (blue line) and the columns are the annual change in that population (maroon columns). The 1960 to 1990 population surge in the wake of the baby boom is easy to see as is the echo-boom from early 2005 through the 2020’s.