This should surprise no one. All of the alarmism is based on models, not based on reality.
Global warming predicted by United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models are “inconsistent” with observed temperature trends, according to a study.
A new study by climate scientists Nic Lewis and Judith Curry found “multicentennial or multidecadal future warming under increasing forcing of only 55−70% of the mean warming simulated by CMIP5 models” used by the IPCC,” Lewis wrote.
It’s the latest in a slew of studies trying to figure out how much warming can be expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide levels. The answer: not much, according to Lewis and Curry.
The study was an update to research Lewis and Curry conducted in 2014 to estimate the climate’s sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere — a measurement known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS).
Lewis and Curry’s 2014 study pegged ECS at 1.64 degrees Celsius. The IPCC’s latest climate assessment, released in 2013, put sensitivity between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius. But IPCC models typically have an ECS around 3 degrees Celsius.
Incorporating new evidence, Lewis and Curry came up with an ECS of just 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is about 10 percent below what they found a few years ago. If their results hold, it means the IPCC’s models overestimate future warming by 30 to 45 percent.
“These results imply that high ECS and [transient climate response] values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period,” Lewis wrote in a blog post summarizing the study’s results.