One would think that with all the technological and statistical tools at their disposal, school districts and state agencies would be able to make reasonably accurate predictions of enrollment and, therefore, hiring needs.
However, in state after state we are seeing layoffs and marked competition for the job openings that do exist. In Florida, for example, the need for new teachers is about half what it was just two years ago. In the public school labor market, as with many other human endeavors, we often treat the problems of shortages and gluts as if they never existed before.
Thanks to the miracle of the Internet, we can see plainly that these problems existed before, and a lot of the same solutions were applied. JSTOR: The Scholarly Journal Archive allows us to take a look at what the best minds in education research thought about problems way back when, and for our purposes JSTOR provides some access to old issues of Educational Research Bulletin.
The bulletin ran an annual feature of investigations of teacher supply and demand, co-authored over the years by R.H. Eliassen, Earl W. Anderson and Margaret A. Vesey. The articles not only furnish information about shortages and gluts of the past, but challenge our current assumptions about their causes.
For example, teacher shortages today are often blamed on increased opportunities for women compared to the past. Certainly today women have a much wider choice of careers available to them, but as it turns out, 2.0.CO;2-1&size=SMALL&origin=JSTOR-reducePage" href="http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=1555-4023(19430512)22:5%3c126:IOTSAD%3e2.0.CO;2-1&size=SMALL&origin=JSTOR-reducePage">back in 1942 it was a combination of new choices and a lack of choices that contributed to a teacher shortage:
"Numerous causes – the exodus into more remunerative positions in industry, government work, or business, the calls into military life, and the marriage of women teachers – contributed to this situation. Some married women left teaching to live near their husbands who were in military camps. Others resigned because their husbands had increased their incomes, and a few left teaching in the effort to keep their husbands from being drafted for military service."
The war years saw extreme shortages in teachers of subjects traditionally taught by men, particularly math and science. The 2.0.CO;2-J&size=SMALL&origin=JSTOR-reducePage" href="http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=1555-4023(19440216)23:2%3c46:TSADIR%3e2.0.CO;2-J&size=SMALL&origin=JSTOR-reducePage">1943 2.0.CO;2-J&size=SMALL&origin=JSTOR-reducePage" style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">Bulletin indicated a need for between 150,000 and 200,000 teachers – greater than the current alarmist predictions with a much smaller population base. Measures taken to mitigate the shortage included "sharing circuit teachers" and issuing special certificates to teachers of "substandard training."
By the early 1950s the war was no longer causing shortages, but the baby boom was. The 2.0.CO;2-S" href="http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=1555-4023(19540512)33:5%3c128:IOTSAD%3e2.0.CO;2-S">1953 2.0.CO;2-S" style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">Bulletin cites this quote from a leading researcher:
"This cumulative deficit of qualified teachers stretches back a decade or more and seems destined to worsen as far as we can see into the future. It is like a creeping paralysis!"
By the following year, the problem had grown to the point where it was a subject of an 2.0.CO;2-4" href="http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=1555-4023(19550413)34:4%3c85:IOTSAD%3e2.0.CO;2-4">Edward R. Murrow news broadcast:
"There are too few teachers, too many teachers who are not fully qualified to teacher, classrooms are too crowded, some schools will be working three shifts, holding classes in cafeterias, churches, synagogues and in at least one case a converted chicken coop."
By 1956 the crisis had crested somewhat, with 2.0.CO;2-O" href="http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=1555-4023(19570410)36:4%3c144:IOTSAD%3e2.0.CO;2-O">the 2.0.CO;2-O" style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">Bulletin reporting that instructional staff had increased by 55,000 while enrollment increased by 1,197,000. That's about one new instructor for every 22 new students. Compare that ratio with the most recent estimates from NEA. From Fall 2005 to Fall 2006, enrollment increased by 165,037 while instructional staff increased by 65,494. That's one new instructor for every 2.5 new students.
All of this provides a useful perspective, both to those who think of the post-war years as the good old days and those who see current problems as unique and insurmountable crises.