Recall that MSD lost 12.8% in 7 years. As you read the EIA report, think of MSD and the "enrollment lag" vs. spending.
EIA has completed school district enrollment and
spending tables for states from Alabama through Michigan. While not yet
half-done, there are already some patterns emerging.
The
"enrollment lag" when it comes to per-pupil spending appears to hold true
everywhere. School districts that lose students – particularly if the loss is 6%
or more over three years – show a higher than average increase in per-pupil
spending over the same time period. This suggests that districts at least
maintain the same level of spending, spread out among fewer students. How long
this effect endures would require research over a longer time frame.
There
are notable exceptions: Oakland, Atlanta and Baltimore all had substantial drops
in enrollment and lower-than-average spending increases. But more typical were
districts like Flint, Michigan, which saw a 9.2% drop in enrollment, coupled
with an 18.2% increase in per-pupil spending.
The
Michigan tables also provide what is so far a unique opportunity for
comparisons. The U.S. Census Bureau included Michigan charter schools as
"districts" for data collection. They are included individually in EIA's
Michigan table, ranked along with school districts by enrollment. Since charter
schools take on many school district duties, this juxtaposition isn't as jarring
as it seems.
The
tables also shed some light on the "65% solution" – the policy proposal that
public schools should spend 65% of their budget on instruction. While
controversial on its own, the tables may ultimately show that the 65% solution
ties into a second, equally controversial public education issue: school
district size.
This
aspect has not been thoroughly debated (though this Philadelphia Inquirer story comes
close), but will ultimately have to be addressed. At first glance, it appears
very large districts cannot reach the 65% threshold. It's especially pronounced
in states like Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Michigan.
In
Arizona, the top 89 school districts in enrollment did not spend 65% on
instruction. In Michigan, the top 72 did not. In Colorado, the top 93 did not.
In Florida, none of the state's 67 county-wide school districts reached the 65%
plateau.
In
Michigan, only one school district in the top 10% in enrollment was a 65%
instruction district. Of the districts in the bottom 10% in enrollment, 27
reached the 65% level.
In
other states, the picture is murkier. Cobb County School District in Georgia had
more than 102,000 students, but still spent 65% on instruction. Bridgeport is
the largest district in Connecticut, but it managed to spend 65% on
instruction.
There
are a host of explanations for the relationship between district size and
spending priorities. I have my
theory, but others are legitimate. But 65% solution advocates have another,
more pressing, question to answer. Does it really matter? Maryland is the place
where this question absolutely needs to be answered.
Can
the case be reasonably made that the Baltimore school district – subject of an
Oprah tirade last week – is making better instructional spending decisions
than the Montgomery County school district? Baltimore is a 65% district.
Montgomery County is not.
The
irony of all this is that there seems to be a simple solution if you identify
the problem as low per-pupil spending, or insufficient spending on instruction.
Just reduce enrollment. The lag factor increases per-pupil spending (at least in
the short term). With the same number of instructors (or more) with fewer
pupils, the "spending on instruction" percentage also rises.
Alas,
the real problem is neither low per-pupil spending nor low instructional
percentages, but poor academic performance. And for that, Standard
& Poor's examination of the issue put it succinctly: "Thus, the data do
not suggest that mandating a minimum instructional spending allocation applied
uniformly across all districts will necessarily increase academic performance."